I Don’t Believe the Polls

Jan 25, 2016 by

United States presidential election, 2016

“I Don’t Believe the Polls”

By Donna Garner



Both Steve Deace in Iowa and Byron York in New Hampshire are reporting the same thing:  They feel the polling data is highly questionable that shows Trump leading in those states.


Steve Deace, who has been correct in every important election in Iowa since 2008, stated on 1.24.16 in The Right Scoop,Given those facts, I simply do not believe the projected turnout models in these polls. I have no idea why these polls have suddenly produced these massive turnout models in their weighting in the last week.”


Then there is Byron York who went to New Hampshire and reported on 1.24.16 in the Washington Examiner that he kept asking long-time Republican activists whether they believe the polls are right in showing Trump up by 20 points.  They said such things as:


“I don’t know anybody who supports him.”


“…they haven’t personally encountered evidence that the Trump-dominated polls are accurate.”


“…I don’t see it….I don’t feel it. I don’t hear it, and I spend part of every day with Republican voters.”

“I have seen no mass emails, no door knocking, no phone banking.”  

…”So what explains the polls?”

“I don’t know.”

… I asked Mr. and Mrs. Sununu whether they knew anyone who supports Trump. They looked at each other for a minute, thinking, and finally said yes, there’s a guy down the street from them who does.

…Some of them just didn’t believe the polls are accurate. The samples are too small, they said, the margins of error too large, and not enough cell-phone users are surveyed. The underlying sense was that Trump’s lead just feels wrong.

…” It doesn’t make logical sense.”



Of course, FoxNews has given Donald Trump at least $29.7 Million in free airtime from May 2015 through Dec. 2015 (as reported by Media Matters on 1.12.16)   


However, I still believe that the grassroots voters are the ones who make the difference because they have the “fire in the belly” to get out to vote themselves and will take their neighbors with them. 


As publicly reported on Dec. 31, 2015, Ted Cruz’s campaign surpassed $50 Million in donations with only $37 Million of that coming from large donations. 


Around 770,000 total donations have been given by some 336,000 grassroots donors – average donation, $66.13.


Among the large donors (a.k.a., bundlers), there is not a single registered lobbyist. 


Cruz’s campaign has not hired fundraising consultants but does its own fund raising using an in-house team with only 9 cents of every $1.00 being spent on fundraising consultants.


Cruz’s National Finance Chairman is Willie Langston, and he is working unpaid. 


The entire campaign team, including Cruz himself, is very frugal and spends only 9 cents out of every $1.00 on operating costs and salaries for major donor efforts.


Interestingly enough, just after Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad criticized Cruz for not supporting ethanol subsidies, Cruz raised over $700,000.  Gov. Branstad’s son Eric works for the corn-ethanol industry and is the head of ARF (America’s Renewable Future).  ARF has hounded Cruz with false ads as he has campaigned throughout Iowa; but Eric may have caused a backlash by encouraging fair-thinking donors to give that $700,000.


Cruz does not believe Washington, D. C. should pick winners and losers because he believes businesses can compete and should not have to go “on bended knee” to beg D. C. for subsidies. 


Since 2014, Cruz has advocated that the RFS (amount of ethanol and other biofuels in gasoline) be cut by 20% a year and be ended completely in five years, including the energy-specific subsidies going to oil.  


We will see what happens in a few short days in Iowa, New Hampshire, and throughout the country; but I believe the voters in this country do not want another Narcissist “dictator” in the White House who rules by executive orders.


I sincerely believe that America wants Ted Cruz because he knows that by himself he cannot fix the problems which have occurred over these last eight years. It will take a President who knows the Source of all Wisdom and Knowledge to redirect America’s path. Ted Cruz does offer hope for America.



10.6.15 — “I Was Right: Polling Data Unreliable” – by Donna Garner – Edviews.org




Donna Garner


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