The Jeb Bush Conundrum

Jun 14, 2015 by

By Erick Erickson –

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had a bad week last week, according to the Washington Press corps. They saw Bush installing Republican operative Danny Diaz as his campaign manager as a sign that Bush is struggling. Actually, Diaz is a great pick and a sign that Bush is about to formally announce his presidential bid. But the reality is that Jeb Bush has made a number of miscalculations as he heads to a formal announcement this week.

First, he presumed his entry would keep others out. It may have kept out Romney v.5.0, but that was all. Bush team members were rather public that they hoped his early announcement would keep Rubio out. It did not.

When Rubio got in, they presumed they could lock down Florida donors. They did not. They then presumed they could snag the national mega-donors. They could not.
In fact, three of the mega-donors, in separate conversations with me, tell me that Jeb hit them in the same sweet spot Romney did and, given Romney’s campaign, they are less likely to support Jeb because they feel as comfortable with him as they did Romney. Romney’s shadow hurts Jeb.

Another problem Jeb has is that he snapped up way more consultants than he needed in order to keep them from helping other candidates. The only thing these consultants are good for is bleeding a candidate dry, which is what they are doing to Bush.

Bush may have kept people off the field, but he has a massively high burn rate between his campaign and super PAC. That is forcing him to fundraise more than campaign. He has a higher burn rate than a lot of the other candidates, and that is going to bite him in the rear.

Let’s also be honest on one point. Bush’s position on immigration is not the deal breaker many of the most vocal elements of the right seem to think it is. See e.g. Republican nominees George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney — all mostly to the left of where Jeb is on the issue.

Source: The Jeb Bush Conundrum | RealClearPolitics

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