Next week’s climate circus in New York

Sep 19, 2019 by

The following is an extract from a piece I have in the Spectator on line

The push is on for the upcoming UN Climate Summit to be held 23 September in New York. Although the most senior leaders, Trump and Xi Jinping, will not attend, the UN claims that 100 heads of state will.

The Climate Summit is proceeded by the Youth Summit to be attended by autistic rock star Greta Thunberg, yachted in from Europe at great expense to avoid burning fossil fuels. The New York Youth Summit takes place alongside a weeklong global climate strike, ostensibly led by children, planned for the week commencing 20 September.

The agenda for dramatic and urgent action is totally divorced from the evidence.

Temperatures, the bottom line, have failed to show the increases that all but one of the 32 climate models assembled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have forecast.  The only “outlying” model, which accurately projected the actual trend, is from Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. That model differs from all others in following the theoretical perspective of Richard Lindzen and not incorporating a feedback from water vapour amplifying the direct affect of greenhouse gases on temperatures.

The Russian model and Lindzen’s peerless atmospheric physics should be a warning against further harmful economic actions, chief among which are subsidies and regulations to replace fossil fuel electricity with high cost, unreliable renewables.

But, contrary to this, there is mass delusion whereby every event is interpreted as confirmation of the embedded views that are held by opinion leaders, who are overwhelmingly alarmist.  Thus:

  • bushfires in Australia are deemed unprecedented (52.20) but are at no more extensive than normal
  • suiciding walruses filmed by David Attenborough were attributed to global warming but were shown to have many historical precedents
  • Hurricanes are designated as an outcome of climate change but are in fact showing no trends
  • Droughts bring enhanced claims for action but they come and go as they always have
  • Sea level increases that are no greater than the century long trend (contra Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Miami’s problems stem from building too close to the tidal peaks).

With the incredible media and political hype, it is still surprising that after 40 years of data that has failed to provide evidence of dangerous, human-induced climate change, climate alarmism remains ascendant.  A poll of 30,000 people in 28 countries finds respondents overwhelmingly think climate change is taking place.  In half of the countries the climate change was mainly attributed to human activity.

Jonathan Haidt’s studies find, “Once people join a political team they get ensnared in its moral matrix.  They see confirmation of their grand narrative everywhere and it is perhaps impossible to convince them that they are wrong if you argue from outside of their matrix.”  His advice is to combat opponents’ views by professing to use their own moral compass. For the most part pretending to acknowledge serious adverse outcomes of climate change and claiming that enough is being done has been the approach of Australian Coalition politicians.  Senator Paterson (52.27) is a good example of this.

The approach however usually leads to a Danegeld situation whereby concessions lead to ever increased demands which become difficult to fully reject.

Unfortunately, the fundamental change brought about by persuasive leadership, usually only takes place after the regime they replaced was perceived to have failed dramatically.  Such dramatic failure might occur in Australia if electricity disruptions become extensive but this remains unlikely and a “boiling frog” relative decline is, accordingly, more likely.

Source: Next week’s climate circus in New York | Catallaxy Files

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